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The European Commission is advocating for reduced US tariffs as trade discussions commence, following President Trump's proposal to double import duties on steel and aluminum to 50%. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will meet US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris, while technical teams will engage in talks in Washington.The proposed tariff increase has already led to a surge in US steel manufacturer stocks, but has negatively impacted automakers and construction companies due to rising input costs. Historical patterns indicate that such tariffs often benefit specific producers while imposing broader economic costs, potentially leading to retaliatory measures from the EU affecting up to €95 billion of US imports.
The trade dispute between the US and China is easing, with a recent agreement reached with the UK, but investors are still awaiting a deal with the EU. Key economic data from China, including retail sales and industrial production, will be released early in the week, followed by purchasing managers' indices from Germany, the eurozone, and the US on Thursday. The ifo Business Climate Index and Germany's GDP data will also be significant focal points for investors.
The EU and China have initiated discussions to establish minimum prices for Chinese-made electric vehicles, potentially replacing existing tariffs of up to 45.3% imposed last October due to subsidy concerns. This negotiation aims to address unfair competition while avoiding severe trade disruptions, reflecting internal divisions within Europe, particularly among German automakers reliant on the Chinese market. The shift from tariffs to minimum pricing represents a complex challenge, as it requires a sophisticated structure to effectively counter the diverse EV market's competitive landscape.
The European Union is preparing countermeasures against the US in response to President Trump's planned tariffs, potentially targeting major American tech firms like Google, Amazon, and X (formerly Twitter). Options include increased regulation, financial transaction taxes, and restrictions on public contracts, with the Digital Markets Act also in consideration. While the EU is ready to retaliate, it remains open to negotiations to resolve trade barriers and enhance cooperation.
Goldman Sachs and Crédit Agricole have upgraded their forecasts for the Pound against the Dollar, citing a potential rally driven by USD weakness and improving UK growth. As the UK currency acts as a hedge against rising U.S. tariffs, it has recently recovered to 1.2905, exceeding some short-term targets. However, risks remain high as new tariffs could shift market dynamics, potentially benefiting the Dollar.
A new lobbying scandal in the European Parliament has emerged, with police raids linked to allegations of bribery involving Huawei. Investigators are focusing on 15 current and former MEPs, with several arrests made and offices sealed. Huawei has stated it takes the allegations seriously and is committed to cooperating with the investigation.
PSIQUANTUM has achieved a significant milestone in manufacturing photonic quantum chips at scale, addressing major hardware challenges in quantum computing. Meanwhile, India and the EU have strengthened their collaboration on AI, digital governance, and semiconductor ecosystems, committing to enhance digital cooperation, promote ethical AI, and ensure supply chain resilience. They also agreed to work on interoperability of Digital Public Infrastructures and bridge the digital skills gap through talent exchange initiatives.
The Swiss government faces challenges as recent national votes reveal a disconnect with public opinion, with three out of four government-supported initiatives rejected. Meanwhile, the chocolate industry grapples with controversies, including a class action lawsuit against Lindt & Sprüngli over heavy metals in dark chocolate, despite ongoing popularity among consumers. Additionally, a national campaign to combat gender-based violence is set to launch by the end of 2025, highlighting ongoing concerns about women's safety in Switzerland.
Cédric Wermuth, Co-President of the SP, argues that immigration is essential for Switzerland's prosperity and infrastructure, warning that limiting it could lead to hospital closures. He opposes the SVP's initiative to cap immigration and emphasizes the need to protect public services and wages in ongoing EU negotiations, which are nearing completion.
Negotiations on institutional relations between Switzerland and the EU are nearing completion, with Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis and European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic meeting to assess progress. The talks, which aim to update and expand existing agreements in various sectors, are expected to conclude by the end of the year, with a potential public vote on the agreement in autumn 2026.
Maroš Šefčovič
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